Energy Transition& Net-zero Pathways for Olefins

Ethylene industry has made limited progress in decarbonization at a global level, partly driven by demand growth exceeding the energy efficiency gains. Industry can still gain energy efficiency by applying the best available technologies, but aging assets provide limited economic potential to achieve the targets leading up to net-zero emissions.
Challenges

• Majority of the energy consumption in ethylene plants is for high temperature cracking furnaces, which complicate the deployment of renewable electricity.
• Majority of the ethylene production growth is integrated with refinery operations resulting in petrochemicals yields higher than 50% of crude oil input. The integration of refinery and petrochemicals complicates the energy accounting for the petrochemical products as the energy is locked in.
• Nearly a two-third of the emission reduction potential relates to the energy used in production processes of the materials (e.g. plastics), the remainder with the materials systems (flows and supply chain) optimization.
• Most of the ethylene is currently produced from hydrocarbon feeds. Plastic production based on biomass is currently less than 1% of the current consumption. The high cost of low-carbon alternatives is a major barrier for entry.
• After decades of effort, plastic recycling is not well developed, and industry has been trying to improve this situation. Majority of the post-consumer plastics and textiles are either dumped in landfills or incinerated to recover some of the energy value. Low recycling rates and low energy recovery rates add to the carbon emissions. Chemical recycling utilizing pyrolysis technology results in significant carbon and energy losses.
• Industry would need a significant amount of investment in clean energy supply in combination with new facilities (to replace some of the aging and inefficient assets) to meet the demand growth and emission reduction technologies. This would lead to a high mitigation cost, given the current levels of energy and feedstock supply cost.
• Some of the studies project high levels of contribution from biomass feedstock. The risks and uncertainty about availability of these (in competition with food needs and land use) will play a major role in the viability of biomass feedstock.

Options & Pathways (Net-zero will require combination of options)The challenge will be for the existing assets and assets under design and construction to find an optimum net-zero path.

• Energy Efficiency
• CCUS (Carbon Capture Utilization & Storage)
• Fuel Switching, in combination with emission reduction technologies
• Clean Power, process electrification
• Alternative Feedstocks
• Circularity & Materials Systems Optimization (Flows and Supply Chain)

Affordability and reliability will be key for net-zero growth. Infrastructure will be vital, for meeting net-zero targets, including

• Renewable power grids
• Pipelines for CO2, hydrogen and other fuels (heat)
• Waste handling logistics and recycling

I have discussed this issue and along with some ideas in previous blogs. Net-zero approaches and interim targets will be impacted heavily by the policies and framework at national and local levels.