In this blog post, we will review the current state of plastic materials and circularity.
Plastics - Essential Materials
Plastics have become essential materials in many applications due to their versatility to meet a variety of functions and demands. 
• Lightweight and energy efficient

• Plastic packaging weigh about 15% compared to most of the metals and glass, lowering transportation emissions
• Less energy to produce compared to metals and glass, however feed is fossil fuel dependent

• Helps extend shelf life of food products – flexible and tight sealing

• Reducing spoilage and waste

• Medical and Healthcare applications – reduce risk of contamination, crucial in single-use items

• Sterilizable, lightweight, disposable, transparent

• Consumer electronics – insulating, durable, customizable shapes and color, impact resistance
• Construction and building materials – resistant to weathering and rot, durable and insulating
• Safety and sports equipment – impact resistant, lightweight, durable and flexible
• 3D printing and prototyping – can be melted, shaped to create detailed complex shapes
• Agriculture – protecting crops from extreme weather, better environmental control improving yields and availability, reduce water evaporation
• Automotive and Airspace – lightweight improves fuel efficiency, corrosion and impact resistant making them safe and economical
• Textiles – can be engineered for breathability, insulating, easy to maintain, durable
• Infrastructure – durability, corrosion resistance, easy to install, lightweight – requires less maintenance than metals

Plastic Waste and Circularity
Key to tackling plastic waste is to create circularity.
Plastic Waste
• Environmental and health challenge

• Does not decompose naturally – can persist for hundreds of years
• Nearly a third of the plastic package waste is lost in the environment (nearly 58 million tons based on 2022 data)

        • Breaks down to microplastics – entering food chains and contaminate ecosystem

• Additives and production can involve toxic chemicals – potentially harming human health and environment

• Not sustainable, given the growing demand for materials
• Challenge for managing waste – diversity of polymer types and composites, low economic value
• Less durable under extreme conditions of high temperatures and UV light – limits lifespan and reusability
Circularity
• Keep the materials in use longer at maximum value
• Recover and regenerate 

• Use as a resource minimizing environmental impact
• Decoupling the demand growth from feedstock resources

Design Innovation – Plastics Materials & Products
To achieve circularity, there is a need for innovations in both the plastic materials as well as product designs.
• Extend lifetime of plastic materials – self healing, slowing deterioration
• Reducing material usage – enhanced performance and design
• Refillable and recyclable packaging 
• Ease of repair to extend life, and dismantling for recycling
• Increase recyclability of plastics – degradability on demand, one type of material for packaging
• Biodegradable plastics
• Non-toxic additives and chemicals

Recycling Technologies Overview
In 2022, recycled materials (mostly mechanical) contributed nearly 36 million tons (about 9% of the global production).
Mechanical Recycling 

• Mostly for PET, HDPE, PP
• Energy efficiency - high
• Carbon efficiency - moderate to high
• Limited by contamination, degradation

Pyrolysis

• Mixed and contaminated plastics
• Energy efficiency - low
• Carbon efficiency - low
• Produces fuels

Depolymerization

• Mostly for PET, Nylons, polyesters
• Energy efficiency - moderate
• Carbon efficiency - moderate to high
• High cost

Solvolysis

• Contaminated, multilayer plastics ​
• Energy efficiency - moderate
• Carbon efficiency - moderate to high
• Expensive, limited commercial availability

Thermal (Gasification, Incineration)

• Mixed and unrecyclable plastics
• Energy efficiency - moderate
• Carbon efficiency - low
• Not circular

Biological

• PET
• Energy efficiency - likely high
• Carbon efficiency - likley high
• Early stage of development

Many technologies are still in the early stages of development and commercialization. As these technologies mature, performance and efficiency will likely improve.

Allocation Approach
Mass balance and allocation methods offer flexibility in incorporating recycled materials. While mass balance accounting can include both high-value chemicals and fuels, the latter is subjective in sustainability terms because it doesn't support closed-loop recycling and results in CO₂ emissions. Mass balance for fuels has a role in current waste management and transition strategies. Clearly distinguishing between recycled content allocated to fuels versus chemicals can help increase transparency.

In this post, we’ll explore a roadmap for the ethylene industry to achieve NetZero emissions by 2050.
Global Energy Landscape
To start, let’s look at recent global energy forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and Rystad Energy. Key trends include:
• Reduced Emission Intensities: Thanks to technological advances, emission rates have significantly dropped since the 1960s and 2000s.
• Persistent Challenges: Geopolitical issues, policy gaps, and financing hurdles continue to create uncertainties.
• Current Emissions and Rising Demand: Global carbon dioxide emissions are at 39 gigatons, with energy demand reaching 642 exajoules (EJ) in 2023 and rising quickly.
• Growing Renewable Energy: While we’re behind on targets, renewable energy deployment is expanding. Coal power is declining, and solar, battery, and nuclear and carbon capture technologies are intensifying the electric power transition. 
• Lagging Efficiency Targets: Many energy efficiency goals are far from being met. Despite technology being available, uneven policies hinder progress. For example, methane emissions remain high, and coal plants lose about 60% of energy during conversion (even natural gas lose about 50% energy during conversion).
Today, fossil fuels still power around 79% of the energy used in transportation, industry, and buildings. While low-carbon investments and technologies (like solar, wind, battery storage, nuclear, and carbon capture) are helping to decarbonize the electric grid, we still have a long journey toward NetZero.
Challenges in the Industrial Sector
Industrial emissions, especially from petrochemicals, are increasing. Producing light olefins, such as ethylene and propylene, remains fossil fuel intensive. However, some clean technology solutions could help reduce emissions for light olefin production over the next decade, such as:
• Carbon Capture and Blue Hydrogen: Carbon capture and storage (CCUS) and blue hydrogen technologies can help cut emissions and improve efficiency.
Despite some demand growth for light olefins, oversupply has led to lower margins, limiting funds for energy-efficient upgrades. This surplus situation forces older, inefficient plants to shut down, which could help lower energy intensity overall. However, it may also mean less funding for research, slowing the pace of innovation. This sector is highly capital-intensive, making the industry cautious about new investments.
Long-Term Solutions
In the medium to long term, electric reactors and other clean technologies could make a big difference in reducing emissions from light olefin production. Many of these technologies are in the advanced stages of development, with potential to transform the industry beyond 2040.
Through these strategies and innovations, the ethylene industry has a real path toward NetZero by 2050. However, reaching that goal will require sustained investments, policy support, and breakthrough technologies to reshape the landscape over the coming decades.

In the last two blogs, I have shared my thoughts about the energy transition and sustainable material management for the petrochemical industry. Circularity and NetZero goals go hand-in-hand for a sustainable future, addressing the pressing realities of climate change and managing threats to human health, ecosystems, and wildlife. As we look ahead, the ethylene industry faces a significant challenge: an anticipated oversupply over the next 3 to 5 years. To remain competitive and successful, industry leaders must strategically position themselves, focusing on optimizing resource and asset utilization while managing variable and fixed costs.
Emphasizing Asset Utilization
Given the anticipated oversupply, the emphasis on optimizing resources and assets within an organization's portfolio has never been more critical. This requires a deep understanding of the current capabilities of existing assets to minimize the overall cost of production. Industry leaders need to maximize high-value products within current constraints, mitigating the impact of an oversupplied market.
Understanding current performance is essential for identifying opportunities to improve yields, reduce energy requirements, and minimize waste. By comprehending the limits of operating windows and their impact on preventive maintenance or mitigating strategies such as fouling, corrosion, and contaminants management, companies can ensure the efficient utilization of resources and assets.
Adoption of Low-Carbon Technologies and Process Efficiency
Adopting low-carbon technologies and emphasizing process efficiency improvements must go hand in hand. Industry leaders should focus on technologies that enhance carbon efficiency while increasing the recycled content in products. This not only helps in meeting sustainability goals but also positions companies as leaders in the transition towards a circular economy.
Investing in new technologies that promote high carbon efficiencies and recycling is crucial. Companies need to continuously explore and adopt innovations that reduce the carbon footprint and enhance the sustainability of their operations. This proactive approach will help the industry meet regulatory requirements and public expectations while driving long-term profitability.
Building a Skilled Workforce
The future success of the ethylene industry will also be dictated by a skilled workforce. Continuous training and development programs are essential to ensure that employees are proficient in new technologies and processes. A workforce well-versed in the latest advancements can drive efficiency, innovation, and competitiveness.
Companies must invest in their people, offering opportunities for growth and development. This not only enhances productivity but also fosters a culture of continuous improvement and innovation. A skilled workforce is better equipped to tackle the challenges of an oversupplied market and contribute to the company’s sustainability goals.
Enhancing Customer Relationships
In an oversupplied market, strong customer relationships become even more critical. Companies should focus on providing tailored solutions and services that add value for customers. Collaborative innovation and technical support can differentiate a company from its competitors, fostering loyalty and long-term partnerships.
Understanding customer needs and delivering customized solutions will help companies maintain a competitive edge. By being responsive to market demands and proactive in addressing customer challenges, companies can build stronger, more resilient relationships.
In Summary
As we navigate the anticipated oversupply in the ethylene industry over the next few years, strategic asset utilization and sustainable practices will be key to staying competitive. Industry leaders must focus on optimizing resources, adopting low-carbon technologies, building a skilled workforce, and enhancing customer relationships.
By understanding current performance, improving yields, reducing energy requirements, and minimizing waste, companies can position themselves for success. Investing in continuous training and development will ensure a skilled workforce ready to embrace new technologies and processes. Finally, strong customer relationships built on tailored solutions and collaborative innovation will help companies thrive in an oversupplied market.
The future of the ethylene industry lies in our ability to adapt, innovate, and commit to sustainability. Let us embrace these challenges and work towards a prosperous, sustainable future.

In a world grappling with environmental challenges, the urgency to transition towards sustainable solutions has never been clearer. Among the most pressing issues is the accumulation of plastic waste, posing threats to ecosystems, human health, and wildlife. However, within this crisis lies a remarkable opportunity: the adoption of circularity principles for all materials, with plastics at the forefront. In this blog, we'll delve into the compelling case for embracing circularity, its transformative potential, and the key steps needed to realize this vision.
Decoupling Growth from Resource Consumption
The linear economy model, reliant on finite resources like fossil fuels, is unsustainable in the long run. Circular economy principles advocate for decoupling economic growth from resource consumption by keeping materials and products in use for as long as possible. This shift not only conserves valuable resources but also reduces waste and pollution, leading to a more resilient and sustainable economy.
Plastics: A Looming Environmental Threat
Plastics, known for their longevity and persistence in the environment, pose significant challenges. They can take hundreds of years to decompose, accumulating in landfills and oceans, endangering marine life, and compromising ecosystems. Embracing circularity for plastics is essential to mitigate these threats by reducing waste, maximizing material value, and minimizing environmental impact throughout the product life cycle.
Unlocking Lower Energy Intensity and Enhanced Design
Circularity promotes lower energy intensity by minimizing the need for energy-intensive steps like extraction and processing of virgin materials. Designing products for durability, reparability, and reuse further enhances energy efficiency and resource conservation. By extending the lifespan of end products and implementing repair and reuse strategies, circularity fosters a more sustainable approach to consumption and production.
The Power of Awareness and Regulation
Increasing public awareness about the importance of recycling and the environmental consequences of plastic pollution is vital. Equally crucial are regulatory and policy requirements that promote recycling and hold producers accountable for managing the end-of-life of their products. These measures create a conducive environment for circularity, driving systemic change and fostering sustainable practices across industries.
Key Steps Towards a Circular Economy
To transition to a circular economy, several key steps and considerations must be addressed:

1. Encouraging Circular Business Models: Businesses must prioritize waste reduction, repair, reuse, and recycling. Embracing sharing and leasing models, product-as-a-service concepts, and closed-loop supply chains fosters circularity and drives sustainable growth.
   
2. Policy and Regulation: Implementing comprehensive policies and regulations that promote circularity is essential. Governments play a crucial role in incentivizing recycling and creating an enabling environment for investment and innovation.
   
3. Innovation and Research: Investing in research and innovation is vital for overcoming technical challenges and unlocking new opportunities for circularity. Advancements in recycling technologies and sustainable product design drive progress towards a circular economy.
   
4. Investment in Infrastructure: Developing and investing in recycling infrastructure is critical for promoting circularity. Robust collection, sorting, processing, and recycling facilities are essential for maximizing material recovery and minimizing waste.
   
5. Collaboration and Education: Collaboration among stakeholders and increased public awareness are indispensable for driving the transition to a circular economy. Educating consumers about recycling and waste management fosters a culture of sustainability and collective action.
   

Technology Options for Plastic Recycling
Several technology options are available for plastic recycling, each with its unique strengths and challenges:

• Mechanical Recycling: Sorting, cleaning, and melting plastic waste to produce pellets or flakes for manufacturing new products.
• Chemical Recycling: Breaking down plastic polymers into chemical constituents for producing new plastics or other products.
• Feedstock Recycling: Converting plastic waste into feedstock or raw materials for fuels, chemicals, or industrial products.
• Biological Recycling: Using microorganisms to break down plastic waste into organic compounds.
• Plastic-to-Fuel Conversion: Converting plastic waste into fuels like diesel or gasoline.
• Upcycling and Downcycling: Converting plastic waste into higher or lower-value products.
• Additive Manufacturing (3D Printing): Utilizing recycled plastics for additive manufacturing processes.

By leveraging these technology options and integrating them into comprehensive waste management strategies, we can accelerate progress towards a circular economy for plastics and materials.
Conclusion
Embracing circularity is not just a choice; it's a necessity for safeguarding our planet and securing a sustainable future for generations to come. By decoupling growth from resource consumption, minimizing waste, and maximizing material value, we can create a more resilient and prosperous economy. The time to act is now. Let's seize the opportunity and embark on the journey towards a circular economy for all materials, with plastics leading the way. Together, we can make a lasting impact and build a brighter, more sustainable future.

The global petrochemical industry has long been a pillar of modern society, providing the essential materials for countless products that drive economies and improve quality of life. Yet, as the world confronts the pressing realities of climate change, this industry faces a pivotal challenge: how to transform its operations to align with ambitious NetZero goals by 2050.
Achieving this vision requires a comprehensive strategy that encompasses the phasing out of inefficient assets, decarbonizing existing infrastructure, and building new, carbon-neutral facilities to meet future demand. Here's a look at the path ahead and the technologies and practices that can drive the petrochemical industry's energy transition.
The Need for a Sustainable Transition A sustainable transition within the petrochemical industry is crucial for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, sustainability goes beyond carbon reduction; it requires efficient resource utilization, circularity, water conservation, and responsible land use. Equally important is the consideration of social and economic impacts, ensuring that measures taken to address climate change do not create new vulnerabilities or disproportionately impact certain communities.
The Role of Technology in Decarbonization The journey toward NetZero by 2050 involves the adoption of both near-term and long-term technologies. By focusing on energy efficiency, carbon capture and sequestration, renewable energy, and advanced recycling, the industry can make significant progress in reducing its carbon footprint.
Technologies for Near-Term Deployment Several technologies are ready for immediate implementation, enabling the petrochemical industry to achieve key milestones in the 2030 to 2035 timeframe:

• Low-Emission Designs: Improving energy efficiency, yield, and operational performance in high-temperature processes such as steam cracking and synthesis gas production.
• Blue Hydrogen: Using hydrogen produced with pre-combustion carbon capture and sequestration as a fuel source.
• Post-Combustion Carbon Capture: Capturing carbon emissions after combustion and storing or utilizing them.
• Carbon-Free Electricity: Transitioning to renewable energy sources for electricity consumption.
• Renewable Feeds: Utilizing renewable feedstocks where available.
• Advanced Recycling: Transforming waste plastics into raw materials, reducing reliance on fossil fuels.

Medium-Term Innovations Looking ahead, new technologies will help drive further carbon reduction based on reliable availability of carbon free electric power:

• Electric Reactors: Electrically heated and shockwave reactors offer energy-efficient alternatives for high-temperature processes like steam cracking.
• High-Capacity Electric Drives: Reliable electrical drives capable of handling 100 MW or more can reduce emissions by eliminating the need for combustion-based power sources.

Longer-Term Vision Beyond 2035, the petrochemical industry must continue to innovate. Potential game-changers include and many other innovations in the early stages of screening:

• Utilizing Captured CO2: Transforming captured carbon dioxide into valuable products like olefins, contributing to circularity.
• Chemical Looping Reactors: Eliminating greenhouse gas emissions through innovative reactor designs.

The Role of Policy and Investment Achieving NetZero by 2050 requires a supportive policy framework. Governments can drive change through incentives, regulations, and funding for innovation and infrastructure. Additionally, investments in transition technologies enable growth and are fueled by increasing demand for sustainable products and practices.
Embracing the Energy Transition The energy transition in the petrochemical industry is not merely a matter of compliance; it is an opportunity to lead the way in sustainable practices, foster innovation, and contribute to a cleaner planet. By embracing new technologies, focusing on resource efficiency, and adopting a holistic approach to sustainability, the industry can transform itself and play a pivotal role in achieving global NetZero goals.

As we approach the end of this year, I would like to share a summary of my thoughts on the outlook for the ethylene (light olefins) industry.
Energy Shifts

• Renewable power share is increasing, albeit at a somewhat slower pace than needed to meet transition targets.
• Coal is still a significant source of power generation driven by multiple factors – including energy security, affordability, competitiveness, self-reliance, etc.
• Oil demand is now expected to peak in the next 5-8 years, later than previously anticipated in transition scenarios.
• The cost of batteries for power storage is declining significantly, thus helping renewable power.

The slower shift will likely have an impact on electrification efforts in the petrochemicals sector.
Feedstock Trends

• Oil-producing countries in the Middle East and major petrochemical demand/growth regions are investing heavily in Crude-to-Chemicals production approaches.
• Ethane exports from the US are expected to increase over the next 5 years.
• Industry continues to look for renewable feed sources – penetration is expected to be limited to some regions and will be slow, and challenges remain about competition with other applications, landmass utilization, infrastructure, etc.
• Ethane feedstock is expected to remain advantageous feedstock in North America and the Middle East. Crude Oil prices are expected to stay at elevated levels in the foreseeable future.

Light olefins are experiencing low utilization rates, and the margins will remain under pressure during 2024. The oversupply situation is dampening investments in North America, while Asia and the Middle East are continuing to add capacity.
Sustainable Pathways
The petrochemical industry has started to invest in its journey toward NetZero targets at a somewhat slower pace, however, uncertainty and risks remain. The industry is making progress in some of the pathways towards sustainability as below:

1. Some of the technologies that are currently under development and/or in the demonstration stage include:
   1. Electrical cracking furnace
   2. Shock wave reactor concepts (e.g. RotoDynamic Reactor) driven by electrical power
   3. Converting carbon dioxide to ethylene
2. Carbon capture applications include:
   1. Some of the crackers are moving forward with pre-combustion carbon capture applications using the auto-thermal reforming concept to produce blue hydrogen as a source of heat for cracking furnaces.
   2. Many companies are evaluating post-combustion carbon capture technologies.
3. Some companies are evaluating green hydrogen as a source of heat; however, current economics pose a challenge. Many companies are looking at external blue hydrogen supply.
4. Some companies are evaluating options for using Small Modular Reactor concepts using nuclear energy for generating power and steam.
5. Circularity:
   1. Many companies have made commitments for advanced recycling facilities (multiple technologies) to replace fresh hydrocarbon feeds. However, challenges remain due to lower carbon efficiency and high energy intensity as well as contaminants in the recycled feed.
   2. Companies are working on concepts to develop circular approaches that can help keep materials in use and at their highest possible value throughout their life.

Keeping the energy transition efforts focused, efficient, and effective requires a great deal of abstract and impartial thinking based on breadth and depth of experience, industry insights, and knowledge. Apex PetroConsultants can help by bringing the value of strategic thinking, specific industry insights, knowledge, and a depth of experience.

Cracking furnaces’ reliability, in simplistic yet effective terms, can be measured by looking at the actual production relative to their overall capability. Many factors, from design/engineering/fabrication/construction through operation and maintenance, contribute towards overall availability and reliability. The furnaces typically determine the total ethylene plant capacity limits and require significant attention, throughout their lifecycle, to achieve best-in-class performance and availability expectations.
Key factors during project development and execution:

• Selection and design of main components – radiant coils, convection coils, transfer-line exchangers, burners, fans, SCR, etc.
• Process controls, monitoring, and safety systems
• Engineering specifications
• Fabrication details, inspection
• Quality of construction

Operation and Maintenance (a lot depends on operation and maintenance strategies along with discipline):

• Working knowledge of fundamentals on the process side (feeds, yields/severity, selectivity, coking/fouling/run-length, decoking, corrosion, erosion, etc.) and fireside (combustion, burners, SCR, emissions, fouling/corrosion/erosion, etc.)
• Design limits, process safety
• Operating variables/interactions, controls, performance monitoring
• Operating modes and procedures
• Predictive and preventive maintenance, frequency (relationship of operating parameters, failure modes, etc.)
• Equipment monitoring
• Personnel training and competency

Many of these factors are interconnected and require a deep understanding to develop a holistic approach for maintaining high reliability and availability to achieve maximum utilization of cracking furnaces.

IMF forecasts GDP growth of 2.8% which is slower than in 2022. Some of the observations of current market conditions are summarized below:

• The last year ended with a significant reduction in the capacity utilization of crackers globally. The largest impact was in Asia and Europe, and the somewhat lower impact was on ethane crackers in the US. Things are expected to improve in H2 2023, and the US will see higher overall utilization. Economic uncertainty remains.
• Ethylene exports have helped to balance supply and demand and are expected to grow in 2023.
• Ethane feed has remained an advantaged feedstock even with higher prices as compared to the pre-pandemic levels. This has impacted the cracker margins. Asia was mostly in negative margin territory for naphtha-based plants. Asia has added significant capacity in late 2022 and early 2023, further affecting supply-demand imbalances. The US started up three new crackers in late 2021 and 2022.
• Average cost of production for US ethane crackers jumped by almost 80% in 2022 while ethylene prices fell. While the cost of production will ease some, margins will remain tight due to the over-supplied situation globally.

The strategic focus for the industry in 2023 and beyond that can differentiate winners from losers will be:

1. Improving competitiveness through capacity utilization and performance improvements.
2. Meeting energy transition goals through carbon footprint reduction.
3. Working towards circularity goals.
4. Accelerating innovation and technology developments

At Apex PetroConsultants, we advise owners and operators in each of these areas and work together with their teams to turn these ambitious goals and objectives into reality.

Energy transition to achieve NetZero goals will be a tremendous achievement, as the transitions are never easy and take a long time and commitment. The industry will need to make progress in the transition journey by keeping the roadmap to NetZero in mind to avoid a disorderly transition while focusing on no-regret decisions.
We have seen many positive signs of progress and announcements in many areas and industries. On a broader basis, the commitments made in Paris Agreement or later, both the private sector and governments are falling behind on the transition path. Current forecasts indicate that at the current pace, the warming levels could be closer to 2.5 degrees Celsius vs. a reference case of 1.5 degrees set by IPCC.
Some of the factors (listed below) have offered opportunities for acceleration, and acted as headwinds at the same time:

• Energy crisis driven by conflicts.
• Economic downturn and higher inflation.
• Frequent extreme weather events causing food shortages, and social and political pressures. These events also result in a significant financial impact.
• Geopolitical conflicts and an increasingly fractured world.
• Trade conflicts, and supply chain disruptions.

Hydrocarbon Processing Industry (HPI) has a significant role to play in the transition as it has the resources (including skilled personnel, technology, innovation, and finances) to accelerate the process. We will still need carbon sources to produce plastic materials that are not only essential for the quality of life we enjoy but also needed to help lower carbon emissions by exploiting renewable resources and by improving energy efficiency. The demand for these products will grow with population growth, expanded middle-income earners, and urbanization but also new applications that help in accelerating the transition. The industry needs to follow a long-term sustainable model that encompasses these among other requirements:

• Focus fossil fuels away from direct contributions towards greenhouse gas emissions as much as practicable.
• Minimize the hydrocarbon feed demand through design approaches to extend product life, making them repair-friendly, and easily recyclable at high economic value.
• Minimize losses to improve overall efficiencies throughout the life cycle.
• Invest in technologies that will speed up the transition towards NetZero goals.

Energy transition has offered the HPI industry a sustainable path for growth in the future. The key is to take a longer-term business view rather than a short-term focused strategy.

During the 2022 Ethylene Producers Conference, I moderated the Panel Session on the subject of “Energy Transition & Decarbonization”. In this blog, I have highlighted key points from the panel session (The panel included Derik Broekhoeff of Stockholm Environment Institute, Rachel Meidl and Jim Krane of Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy).

• Public opinion in most countries, with a few exceptions, is hardening around the need to do more to address the changing climate.
• Companies are incorporating sustainability into their business strategies fueled by pressure from shareholders, stakeholders, and regulations.
• Rising global population, middle class result in higher demand for energy, materials and minerals placing pressure on land use.
• Humanity will need more energy in the future. But the overall energy business could shrink – in volume and in revenue. Part of it depends on how much of the fossil fuel system gets replaced by technologies that don’t use fossil fuels. A shift to renewables would use less material and less trade.
• The products derived from petrochemicals, including plastics, are likely to be indispensable for a range of low-carbon, energy efficient applications in transportation, buildings, agriculture, medical, and consumer goods. The challenge is therefore how to decarbonize the petrochemical production while still meeting the surging demand.
• Global nature of the industry makes the transition efforts economically challenging.
• Decarbonization is more than simply using cleaner fuels and improving efficiency.
• Changing production processes and systems, developing new infrastructure, developing and deploying new technologies to avoid or capture emissions in ways that are economically sustainable.
• The feasibility of different pathways would depend heavily on the development of, among other things, large-scale renewable energy deployment, green/blue hydrogen technology and infrastructure, carbon capture and storage technologies, electrification of production processes (both new and existing technologies).
• Pathways to decarbonization need to comprehensively address all elements of the chemical industry value chain – including upstream production (extraction, separation, refining etc.), downstream derivatives and end use sectors etc. Significant amounts of carbon are embedded in the final products which may be emitted over time depending on end-of-life disposition. Therefore, plastic recycling will be an essential part of decarbonization.
• Over the next 30 years, worldwide solid waste generation is estimated to increase to nearly 3.4 billion tonnes per year.
• Plastics recycling is challenging because the majority of the plastics cannot be recycled in current systems because of complexity, multi-material, customized, contaminated and have additives. The small percentage that is suitable for recycling within current systems can only be recycled a limited number of times due to degradation and therefore downgraded to lower value products.
• In a circular economy, we want to keep the molecule in play as long as possible and material at an economic value. As a part of the transition, plastics production will need to move from linear model to circularity. This potentially would include measures to manage demand, product design requirements and extensive recycling (mechanical as well as advanced).
• As a society, we have failed to see the challenge holistically, in ways that address diverse forms of materials throughout our system becoming waste. Without looking at this broadly, we will continue to compound the increasing waste issue and have a short-sighted version of system level sustainability.
• Sustainability includes multiple factors and their interactions in a wide array related to environment, social and economic aspects. Focusing solely on the separate parts creates vulnerabilities by shifting risks elsewhere in the system, thus producing unsustainable and undesirable outcomes. Circular systems are regenerative by design.
• A circular economy increases resource-efficiency, keeps materials in use and at their highest value throughout its life, decouples growth from the consumption of finite resources through responsible sourcing, reuse/repair/reman, recycling, and other strategies.
• Geopolitics can potentially result in a strong rationale for moving away from fossil fuel-based systems due to energy security needs. Depending on policy choices, the global energy trade may shrink over time. All these changes suggest that the strategic importance of oil and oil producers will decline. Companies decarbonizing their supply chains. Decarbonization pressure is moving down the chain to small suppliers in countries where there is no government pressure.
• For effective policy, the traditional approaches (carbon pricing, technology subsidies, regulations) may not be enough and would need to be extended through research and development/demonstration funding; support for deploying new technologies and infrastructure; measures to foster new markets for low-carbon materials.
• Resources that U.S. industry can bring to bear including financial resources, technical knowledge, research capacity, and workforce skills that can make it potentially a global leader for industrial decarbonization.

To meet the emission budgets in this century (as estimated by IPCC ~800 billion-ton CO2 for <2 oC target). If we stay with current growth and demand targets, these emissions are insufficient for materials production alone. Materials sector allocation to achieve the 2 oC scenario is 300 Gt CO2. As so much of carbon is either built into the products (plastics) that is released at end of life or required by energy intensive production (steel, cement, petrochemicals), circularity is a must to achieve these targets. We need to focus on the essential elements for a successful outcome and to avoid disorderly transition.