Energy transition to achieve NetZero goals will be a tremendous achievement, as the transitions are never easy and take a long time and commitment. The industry will need to make progress in the transition journey by keeping the roadmap to NetZero in mind to avoid a disorderly transition while focusing on no-regret decisions.
We have seen many positive signs of progress and announcements in many areas and industries. On a broader basis, the commitments made in Paris Agreement or later, both the private sector and governments are falling behind on the transition path. Current forecasts indicate that at the current pace, the warming levels could be closer to 2.5 degrees Celsius vs. a reference case of 1.5 degrees set by IPCC.
Some of the factors (listed below) have offered opportunities for acceleration, and acted as headwinds at the same time:

• Energy crisis driven by conflicts.
• Economic downturn and higher inflation.
• Frequent extreme weather events causing food shortages, and social and political pressures. These events also result in a significant financial impact.
• Geopolitical conflicts and an increasingly fractured world.
• Trade conflicts, and supply chain disruptions.

Hydrocarbon Processing Industry (HPI) has a significant role to play in the transition as it has the resources (including skilled personnel, technology, innovation, and finances) to accelerate the process. We will still need carbon sources to produce plastic materials that are not only essential for the quality of life we enjoy but also needed to help lower carbon emissions by exploiting renewable resources and by improving energy efficiency. The demand for these products will grow with population growth, expanded middle-income earners, and urbanization but also new applications that help in accelerating the transition. The industry needs to follow a long-term sustainable model that encompasses these among other requirements:

• Focus fossil fuels away from direct contributions towards greenhouse gas emissions as much as practicable.
• Minimize the hydrocarbon feed demand through design approaches to extend product life, making them repair-friendly, and easily recyclable at high economic value.
• Minimize losses to improve overall efficiencies throughout the life cycle.
• Invest in technologies that will speed up the transition towards NetZero goals.

Energy transition has offered the HPI industry a sustainable path for growth in the future. The key is to take a longer-term business view rather than a short-term focused strategy.

During the 2022 Ethylene Producers Conference, I moderated the Panel Session on the subject of “Energy Transition & Decarbonization”. In this blog, I have highlighted key points from the panel session (The panel included Derik Broekhoeff of Stockholm Environment Institute, Rachel Meidl and Jim Krane of Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy).

• Public opinion in most countries, with a few exceptions, is hardening around the need to do more to address the changing climate.
• Companies are incorporating sustainability into their business strategies fueled by pressure from shareholders, stakeholders, and regulations.
• Rising global population, middle class result in higher demand for energy, materials and minerals placing pressure on land use.
• Humanity will need more energy in the future. But the overall energy business could shrink – in volume and in revenue. Part of it depends on how much of the fossil fuel system gets replaced by technologies that don’t use fossil fuels. A shift to renewables would use less material and less trade.
• The products derived from petrochemicals, including plastics, are likely to be indispensable for a range of low-carbon, energy efficient applications in transportation, buildings, agriculture, medical, and consumer goods. The challenge is therefore how to decarbonize the petrochemical production while still meeting the surging demand.
• Global nature of the industry makes the transition efforts economically challenging.
• Decarbonization is more than simply using cleaner fuels and improving efficiency.
• Changing production processes and systems, developing new infrastructure, developing and deploying new technologies to avoid or capture emissions in ways that are economically sustainable.
• The feasibility of different pathways would depend heavily on the development of, among other things, large-scale renewable energy deployment, green/blue hydrogen technology and infrastructure, carbon capture and storage technologies, electrification of production processes (both new and existing technologies).
• Pathways to decarbonization need to comprehensively address all elements of the chemical industry value chain – including upstream production (extraction, separation, refining etc.), downstream derivatives and end use sectors etc. Significant amounts of carbon are embedded in the final products which may be emitted over time depending on end-of-life disposition. Therefore, plastic recycling will be an essential part of decarbonization.
• Over the next 30 years, worldwide solid waste generation is estimated to increase to nearly 3.4 billion tonnes per year.
• Plastics recycling is challenging because the majority of the plastics cannot be recycled in current systems because of complexity, multi-material, customized, contaminated and have additives. The small percentage that is suitable for recycling within current systems can only be recycled a limited number of times due to degradation and therefore downgraded to lower value products.
• In a circular economy, we want to keep the molecule in play as long as possible and material at an economic value. As a part of the transition, plastics production will need to move from linear model to circularity. This potentially would include measures to manage demand, product design requirements and extensive recycling (mechanical as well as advanced).
• As a society, we have failed to see the challenge holistically, in ways that address diverse forms of materials throughout our system becoming waste. Without looking at this broadly, we will continue to compound the increasing waste issue and have a short-sighted version of system level sustainability.
• Sustainability includes multiple factors and their interactions in a wide array related to environment, social and economic aspects. Focusing solely on the separate parts creates vulnerabilities by shifting risks elsewhere in the system, thus producing unsustainable and undesirable outcomes. Circular systems are regenerative by design.
• A circular economy increases resource-efficiency, keeps materials in use and at their highest value throughout its life, decouples growth from the consumption of finite resources through responsible sourcing, reuse/repair/reman, recycling, and other strategies.
• Geopolitics can potentially result in a strong rationale for moving away from fossil fuel-based systems due to energy security needs. Depending on policy choices, the global energy trade may shrink over time. All these changes suggest that the strategic importance of oil and oil producers will decline. Companies decarbonizing their supply chains. Decarbonization pressure is moving down the chain to small suppliers in countries where there is no government pressure.
• For effective policy, the traditional approaches (carbon pricing, technology subsidies, regulations) may not be enough and would need to be extended through research and development/demonstration funding; support for deploying new technologies and infrastructure; measures to foster new markets for low-carbon materials.
• Resources that U.S. industry can bring to bear including financial resources, technical knowledge, research capacity, and workforce skills that can make it potentially a global leader for industrial decarbonization.

To meet the emission budgets in this century (as estimated by IPCC ~800 billion-ton CO2 for <2 oC target). If we stay with current growth and demand targets, these emissions are insufficient for materials production alone. Materials sector allocation to achieve the 2 oC scenario is 300 Gt CO2. As so much of carbon is either built into the products (plastics) that is released at end of life or required by energy intensive production (steel, cement, petrochemicals), circularity is a must to achieve these targets. We need to focus on the essential elements for a successful outcome and to avoid disorderly transition.

Ethylene industry has made limited progress in decarbonization at a global level, partly driven by demand growth exceeding the energy efficiency gains. Industry can still gain energy efficiency by applying the best available technologies, but aging assets provide limited economic potential to achieve the targets leading up to net-zero emissions.
Challenges

• Majority of the energy consumption in ethylene plants is for high temperature cracking furnaces, which complicate the deployment of renewable electricity.
• Majority of the ethylene production growth is integrated with refinery operations resulting in petrochemicals yields higher than 50% of crude oil input. The integration of refinery and petrochemicals complicates the energy accounting for the petrochemical products as the energy is locked in.
• Nearly a two-third of the emission reduction potential relates to the energy used in production processes of the materials (e.g. plastics), the remainder with the materials systems (flows and supply chain) optimization.
• Most of the ethylene is currently produced from hydrocarbon feeds. Plastic production based on biomass is currently less than 1% of the current consumption. The high cost of low-carbon alternatives is a major barrier for entry.
• After decades of effort, plastic recycling is not well developed, and industry has been trying to improve this situation. Majority of the post-consumer plastics and textiles are either dumped in landfills or incinerated to recover some of the energy value. Low recycling rates and low energy recovery rates add to the carbon emissions. Chemical recycling utilizing pyrolysis technology results in significant carbon and energy losses.
• Industry would need a significant amount of investment in clean energy supply in combination with new facilities (to replace some of the aging and inefficient assets) to meet the demand growth and emission reduction technologies. This would lead to a high mitigation cost, given the current levels of energy and feedstock supply cost.
• Some of the studies project high levels of contribution from biomass feedstock. The risks and uncertainty about availability of these (in competition with food needs and land use) will play a major role in the viability of biomass feedstock.

Options & Pathways (Net-zero will require combination of options)The challenge will be for the existing assets and assets under design and construction to find an optimum net-zero path.

• Energy Efficiency
• CCUS (Carbon Capture Utilization & Storage)
• Fuel Switching, in combination with emission reduction technologies
• Clean Power, process electrification
• Alternative Feedstocks
• Circularity & Materials Systems Optimization (Flows and Supply Chain)

Affordability and reliability will be key for net-zero growth. Infrastructure will be vital, for meeting net-zero targets, including

• Renewable power grids
• Pipelines for CO2, hydrogen and other fuels (heat)
• Waste handling logistics and recycling

I have discussed this issue and along with some ideas in previous blogs. Net-zero approaches and interim targets will be impacted heavily by the policies and framework at national and local levels. 

A recent announcement by Dow to build the world’s first net-zero carbon emissions ethylene and derivative complex(https://investors.dow.com/en/news/news-details/2021/Dow-announces-plan-to-build-worlds-first-net-zero-carbon-emissions-ethylene-and-derivatives-complex/default.aspx) is a showcase example for the petrochemical industry.

The proposed complex will achieve this utilizing the current best available technologies. The high-temperature cracking furnaces will use hydrogen as a fuel for providing the necessary heat input for the process. This will eliminate the carbon dioxide emissions from the furnaces. Hydrogen will be generated using an auto-thermal reforming (ATR) process with a carbon capture step. The captured carbon dioxide will be transported and stored in adjacent infrastructure. (https://cen.acs.org/environment/greenhouse-gases/Dow-details-plan-decarbonize-petrochemical/99/i37). The advantage of this approach is that owners can decarbonize existing assets with minimum changes, provided they have access to infrastructure for carbon storage and utilization.

There are potentially many factors that may have contributed to the decision-making process. Canada’s  Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change played a role that creating market-based carbon pricing mechanisms and financial incentives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and make the reductions economical. Alberta province has two market-based policies including a carbon tax and an output-based pricing system for emissions reduction. This provides certainty to businesses in their decision-making process.

The companies will have to assess individual facilities and sites to develop the most appropriate approaches as they can vary significantly from one site to the other.

At Apex PetroConsultants, we advise client teams to evaluate decarbonization approaches for each individual facility and site that are economical to meet short to mid-term targets while focusing on the longer-term net-zero approaches for new and existing assets.

Energy Transition and Decarbonization require us to look at all the options based on current ground realities:

1. A large capacity base (>190 million MTA) exists today, and nearly 40% of that started up since 2005
2. Many plants started-up since the 1960s are still in operation
3. A number of plants (with a capacity of nearly 20 million MTA) are in different stages of development that will start up by 2025/26 timeframe

The vintage of these assets along with local site-specific economics, infrastructure, and regulatory conditions will determine the approach for decarbonization. The industry can potentially be served well by exploring radical innovative technologies that can shape the future of ethylene production in the 2030s and beyond. The radical innovation approach will require a thought process different from the conventional approach, given the nature of the ethylene industry.
Ethylene is energy intensive industry with a large emphasis on economy of scale and has high capital intensity. These plants take anywhere from 5 to 10 years from initial phases to start-up. All these reasons contribute to high entry barriers for this business and high sunk costs make the exit equally difficult.
The other characteristic of the industry is none or little radical innovations due to high risk and costs, in combination with the cyclical business nature leaving little appetite to invest capital in new technologies. Most of the focus historically has been on incremental improvements or innovation aimed at improving productivity. The long investment cycle leaves no appetite for testing out innovative ideas.
Ethylene also has very few specialized technology providers with low paid-up licensing fees. These providers focus on low-risk, low-cost ideas and look for opportunities for co-developments with owners/operators, and have limited resources dedicated to radical innovation.
This has led to an industry that is oligopolistic in nature.
New innovations come across huge barriers in the early stages, and these include:

• Competing with economies of scale with current technologies
• Perceived risks
• Ability to integrate with a current asset base
• Cost and duration of development

Energy transition and decarbonization have created a special opportunity for radical innovation. This window of opportunity is short to meet the timeline for committed reduction targets and investments required in new capacity to meet future product demand. 
At Apex PetroConsultants, we have historic and recent experience in assessing innovative technologies and advising clients during the development and decision-making process.

Background
Ethylene is an energy-intensive process based on high-temperature steam cracking of hydrocarbons. Ethylene production emits nearly 230 million tons of carbon dioxide (rough estimate based on 2019 ethylene production) and is the fourth largest emitter amongst industrial processes. The majority of the emissions come from steam-cracking furnaces to generate high temperatures for the reaction. The heat recovery from the furnaces is fully integrated with the downstream product recovery process for achieving high overall energy efficiency. Carbon dioxide contributes nearly 97%, methane 2%, and the rest by NOx.
Global greenhouse gas emissions are estimated to be nearly 59 Gt CO2e (based on 2010 data using the emission growth rates of nearly 2.2% experienced from 2000 to 2010). Carbon dioxide contributes nearly 81%, methane 10%, NOx 7%, and the rest by fluorinated gases.
Industry Response
The industry has acknowledged the need for decarbonization and has started rolling out targets for managing the energy transition generally in line with the Paris climate agreement. Some companies are still trying to understand the impact of decarbonization, while others will wait for the regulations and policy guidance. Many companies have also announced efforts to promote sustainability through circularity. Companies are pooling resources to promote a more sustainable world. For example, Alliance to End Plastic Waste, with more than 80 member companies, is working with policymakers, NGOs, and local communities to end plastic waste in the environment.
The industry has still to understand and price-in the impact of sustainable and decarbonized products, and their impact on the competitive landscape globally. Policy decisions around carbon pricing will drive the solutions for all economic sectors and their global reach.
Options for Ethylene Industry
A combination of decarbonization and energy transition options and scenarios could bring the emissions to Net Zero levels. Developing an optimum combination of approaches will be dictated by regional and local factors. The companies will have to assess individual facilities and sites to develop the most appropriate approaches as they can vary significantly from one site to the other. The choices will depend on zero-carbon electricity pricing, CCS infrastructure, and availability/scale of innovative technology options to be economical.
The decarbonization options could include:

• Utilizing a combination of the current state-of-the-art approaches and the best available technologies to improve energy efficiency and minimize emissions. These approaches are economically attractive first steps in the path toward decarbonization. We believe that there is a potential in the range of 10 to 30% reduction.
• Evaluating and understanding the impact of Carbon Capture and Storage (including Utilization) options. This requires understanding the current infrastructure and regulatory environment. The advantage of this option is the availability of technology that can meet emission targets.
• Electrification of the process utilizing zero-carbon electricity. Many companies have launched projects to develop technology for the electrification of cracking furnaces and these technologies will likely play a role in targets beyond 2030. This will have an impact on the ethylene plant separation section as the current facilities have a high level of energy integration.
• Using green hydrogen (generated using zero-carbon electricity) as fuel. The cost, scale, and efficiency of the process will determine economics as compared to other options. The need for distilled water as a feedstock for electrolysis needs to be investigated for future availability.
• Applying material efficiencies to plastics, including recycling, to improve overall carbon footprint.
• Integrated and clustered facilities (including small to medium scale) to drive energy efficiencies in hydrocarbon/feed management, utilities, waste handling/management, and handling/transportation of products/intermediates.

A proper policy framework, that encourages investment in research and development tied to successful implementation, will drive innovation in the industry. We need technology and innovation to achieve net-zero targets that will not result in excessive price adjustments for end products.
At Apex PetroConsultants, we work together with client teams to assess decarbonization approaches for each individual facility and site that are economical to meet short to mid-term targets while focusing on the longer-term net-zero approaches.  

​Steam cracking is an energy-intensive process. Most ethylene plants are looking for opportunities to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and reduce their utility costs to stay competitive. This, in combination with digital transformation, is one of the key focus areas for the industry.
Typical specific energy consumption can vary between 3,500 to 8,000 kcals/kg (6,300 to 14,500 Btu/lb) of product ethylene. Cracking furnaces typically contribute between 45 to 65% of energy consumption in an ethylene plant. The remainder is contributed by the recovery section, including the main compressors.
The level of energy consumption and variability of the split is dictated by many factors. The main ones include:

• Feedstock and cracking severity
• Feed and product conditions
• Level of integration, both hydrocarbons, and utilities
  • Steam/power system integration has a significant impact
• Process technology and age of the facility
• Operation and maintenance approaches and practices
• Asset utilization including reliability and availability

In addition, overall energy consumption figures need to include consumption for intermittent operations (like furnace decoke, dryer regeneration, etc.), flaring (normal, upsets, maintenance activities, start-ups/shutdown, etc.), vents/leakages, etc.
Generic benchmarks may provide a directional indication about the relative comparison to peers in the grouping, it is normally an insufficient approach for determining the viability and success of the programs to either strategic approach for digital transformation or to achieve environmental/energy efficiency and sustainability targets. Another weak area for external and internal benchmarks is understanding and determination of asset capability. A simplistic approach that a facility could only produce as much as it has done historically can lead to an underestimation and underutilization of its capability, therefore influencing not only the benchmarks but also operation and maintenance discipline. A systematic approach based on an understanding of all aspects of process technology/design, main equipment limits/performance, plant data along with operation/maintenance approach, etc. can not only provide a meaningful baseline but also determine the strategic approach for energy and digital transformation.
We, at Apex PetroConsultants, have a successful track record of helping ethylene plants not only determine the baseline but also help develop strategic approaches for a successful outcome. We work together with owner teams to turn these ambitious goals and objectives into reality.

Digital transformation refers to the leveraging of all industrial technologies, software, and expertise to enhance processes and workflows through competencies, and improved products with new and better efficiencies. It involves machine learning based on “big data” consisting of measurements and investigation of patterns – both structured and unstructured. This can open pathways for better resource deployment and utilization over the complete lifecycle from raw materials, through manufacturing, supply chain management, and product lifecycle. Industry must come to grips with the buzz and inflated expectations.
Each business must sort through multiple needs and competing demands under a cyclic business environment to focus on the strategic priorities that are best aligned with its vision and objectives. The list summarizes some of the business needs and demands:

• Safety
• Competitiveness – global and regional market conditions and cost structure (variable, fixed costs, capital cost, working capital, etc.)
• Reliability – to predict and meet commitments
• Sustainability – resources utilization to meet societal expectations/commitments and regulatory compliance
• Geopolitics – uncertain supply chains caused by trade/tariffs-related issues, embargoes, conflicts, etc.
• Organization knowledge and intellectual property base – personnel experience, training, retaining and attracting talent, effective integration and utilization of external resources (consultants, service partners, etc.)

Elements of successful transformation include:

1. Focus on priorities - aligned with a clear vision, overall strategy, and key objectives
2. Transformative leadership - transparency
3. Application of organizational expertise, knowledge base, right skill level, and resources– across cultural and geographical boundaries (including domain expertise, software/hardware expertise, analytical tools/expertise, economics, financial expertise, etc.)
4. Innovation – pushing boundaries, optimizing processes and workflow, empowering and training people
5. Benchmarking current performance based on verified and reliable data– to understand, demonstrate benefits, and accurately model current performance

The key benefits of digital transformation will come from predictive analysis about what will happen under different operating, and maintenance approaches to align with business needs with a greater confidence level (lower risk). The key to this transformation is a high degree of visibility of all aspects of business across the board. This will also allow operators and owners to make informed decisions upfront.
At Apex PetroConsultants, we advise owner teams starting from setting strategic direction and through each of the steps along the transformation journey. We can help set current benchmarks that will set the basis for future success.

The ethylene industry is going through another phase of the cycle impacted by the convergence of multiple factors:

• Increase in ethylene supply over last two years, leading to an imbalance
• Economic slowdown and demand destruction from global impacts of pandemic – on many market segments (e.g. auto industry), economic contraction, behavior shift (e.g. working from home), increase in unemployment, a large portion of the global population being pushed into poverty
• Energy dynamics, partly driven by the pandemic, driven by demand constraints of fossil fuels (particularly petroleum-derived fuels – gasoline, jet fuel, marine fuels, etc.)
• Geopolitics – trade wars, tariffs regime, sanctions, nationalistic approach vs. globalization
• Environmental pressures – plastic circularity, emissions (greenhouse gas, nitrous oxides, particulates, etc.), sustainability, shareholder pressure

Competitive pressures will put greater emphasis on running these facilities at high utilization rates with a lower cost of production. Smaller, inefficient, and less sophisticated assets will be under pressure to shut down. The outcome will vary regionally.
The cost of production in the ethylene manufacturing process depends on:

1. Performance efficiencies – feed consumption, product yield, selectivity, energy efficiency (utility consumption), catalysts/chemical consumption
2. Plant mechanical availability
3. Production slowdown contributed by operation and mechanical reliability issues, process operation, and control
4. Fixed costs
5. Depreciation, cost of money, etc.

The first three points are related to process technology, operation, and maintenance practices.
These may appear to be the obvious areas to optimize for improving competitiveness, but many owners and operators struggle to focus on improvements under the current market environment due to the:

• Potential budget constraints; resulting in cuts in preventive maintenance needs, operational mitigation, training, etc.
• Availability of the right resources
• Experience gap, given the attrition and layoffs because of cost-reduction efforts

The savings in many of these essential costs can easily be recovered by high plant availability and high utilization rates. Knowing the full capability of your facility is equally important to benchmark operation.
At Apex PetroConsultants, we work together with owner/operator teams to understand the full capability of your facility to identify areas of opportunity to improve performance efficiency and plant reliability for minimizing the cost of production. We also focus on imparting working knowledge based on experience and expertise to fill the experience gap through focused training programs.

​In this blog, I would like to highlight the bigger picture aspects that will shape the future of our industry. A deeper understanding will enable us to make strategic choices that not only ensure business growth but also contribute significantly in meeting future challenges.
The positive long-term outlook for petrochemicals
The demand is closely related to GDP and population growth

• World population is increasing rapidly, growing by another billion people by 2030 from the current base of about 7.6 billion. By 2050, the overall population is expected to reach close to 10 billion.[1] Asia and Africa will be contributing a large portion of that growth.
• Long-term GDP growth is expected to be in the range between 3 to 4% average annual rate.[2]
• Urbanization in Asia and Africa will continue, therefore contributing to the demand growth

Demand for engineered plastics and specialty materials is bound to increase as the world will need higher efficiencies to meet sustainable growth. Based on these factors, the expected annual average growth rate for petrochemicals will be in the 4 to 4.5% range.
Energy Dynamics
Energy dynamics have always impacted the competitiveness of the petrochemicals industry as feedstock plays a major role in the cost of production.

• Long-term oil projection scenarios project a wide range from 65 million barrels per day to as much as 120 million barrels per day. [3] 2019 crude oil demand was nearly 100 million barrels per day.
• Emerging and developing economies are projected to add more than 8,000 TWh of renewable power generation by 2040.[4] Solar PV is likely to be the largest share of this growth followed by hydro and wind.
• Conventional fossil fuel transportation demand is flattening and demand for electric vehicles is expected to contribute towards most of the growth projections
• Natural gas demand is expected to increase significantly by 2040. Emerging and developing economies will likely add more than 900 bcm to the demand. [5]

As a result of this, many companies are now investing in integrated complexes where 40% or more of the crude oil intake is converted to chemicals. [6] These complexes produce a large volume of chemicals from a single facility as compared to annual demand growth, changing the competitive landscape. High volatility in crude prices and likely to settle at lower levels in the near term (and potentially in long term based on most of the projection scenarios), making liquid feed cracking more competitive.
Sustainability, circularity, and environment

• Greater push from consumers and bulk end users for plastic recycling. Plastic recycling is expected to double by 2040 from current levels – including chemical, mechanical, and bio recycling depending on the type of plastic waste/collection logistics.
• Regulations related to single-use plastics, greenhouse gas emissions, etc.
• Net zero approaches in line with Paris Agreement (IPCC scenarios) – using multiple technologies and approaches to achieve across-the-board emission cuts

Recycling and circularity will lead to an impact on fresh feed demand and potentially some impact on investments in the longer term. The technologies for recycling are still evolving. Logistics of recycling, technologies, and economic drivers in combination with regulations will dictate future outcomes. Current projections indicate that the overall demand growth will require significant investment in base chemicals during the forecast period.
Geopolitics
It is one of the more complex areas to predict with far-reaching impact on the economies, trade, supply chains, investments, etc.

• Energy dynamics in recent times put a sharp focus on the approach to the energy security of nations
• Growing nationalism and protectionism are resulting in a shift away from international cooperation and economic globalization that contributed to human health, wealth, and quality of life over the last 40 years (more so since World War II).[7]
• Cyber-security, information, and data security in weakening global security structures[8]

Global businesses, like petrochemicals, are more exposed to geopolitical conflicts[9]. It will be harder to reach agreements on common global standards and protocols on sustainability, data, security, etc. Managing these risks will pose a significant challenge for petrochemical businesses.
Global Disruptions
Some risks and opportunities are posing challenges requiring more international cooperation.

• Pandemics – like COVID-19, resulting in a significant slowdown in economic activity globally and supply chain disruptions.
• As the world population grows, essential resources like water and food can become scarce (in combination with the impact of climate-related events)
• Extreme climatic events that can have a far-reaching and significant impact

 
At Apex PetroConsultants, we look forward to a healthy dialogue for helping our industry to make positive contributions and grow.


[1] UN DESA forecast

[2] IMF, World Bank, and other industry publications

[3] IEA scenarios

[4] Id.

[5] IEA outlook

[6] Blogs and publications by the author, multiple industry news and publications

[7] WEF, IMF, CEFIC, and other industry sources and publications

[8] Id.

[9] Id.